China will greatly increase its lead in economic growth in 2025 compared to the U.S.

By John Ross

China would in all circumstances have increased its lead in economic growth over the U.S. in 2025. But the impact of Trump’s tariff announcements will slow the U.S. economy and therefore greatly increase China’s lead. This will have a significant impact internationally in the tariff war which Trump has launched and is therefore a major fact in judging the international situation.

To take simply one economic prediction from the U.S., for example, as recently as last November, Goldman Sachs predicted that China’s economy in 2025 would be growing at 2.0% faster than the U.S. But in its new 10 April forecast Goldman Sachs almost doubled China’s GDP growth lead this year to 3.5% faster than the U.S.. This projection was made even before the announcement that China’s economy in the first quarter grew by 5.4% year on year.